Re-born from the ashes of financial ruin only nine years ago, tiny NS Mura continue their fairytale journey in the Champions League on Wednesday, as they meet Ludogorets Razgrad in the second qualifying round.
Having last made it to the group stage in 2016, the Bulgarian champions will surely fancy their chances of sealing a third-round date with either Olympiacos or Neftchi Baku next month.
Match preview
At the climax of an unforgettable 2020–21 campaign for the team from provincial Slovenia, NS Mura lifted their first-ever national league title after beating closest rivals Maribor 3–1 on the final day of the season.
Finishing with the same number of points as their long-established domestic dominators, but with a better head-to-head record, the side managed by ex-Maribor boss Ante Simundza also claimed a place in the opening round of Champions League qualification.
In their opening tie, they made short work of Macedonia's Shkendija earlier this month, winning both home and away to come through 6-0 on aggregate.
Now in his third and by far most successful spell with the club, Simundza has enjoyed the backing of a dedicated fanbase who, pre-pandemic, marked their return to the elite by taking more than two thousand fans to an away fixture at Olimpija Ljubljana - in fact, a fifth of Murska Sobota's residents made the long trip to the capital.
Though his squad are effectively rookies at this level, former national team striker Simundza has already experienced a Champions League group campaign with Maribor, but is all too aware that his Mura squad were the champions with the lowest winning points tally in Slovenia's Prva Liga for well over a decade.
Having started their title defence with a shock 3-0 loss at home to Tabor Sezana last weekend, the Murasi will be realistic about their hopes of further progress against a much better-funded side this week, but even defeat could guarantee enough prize money to make their once chronic financial worries a thing of the distant past.
By contrast with their Slovenian counterparts, Ludogorets kicked off their own domestic duties with a resounding 4-0 defeat of arch rivals CSKA Sofia to win the Bulgarian Super Cup on Saturday.
As the Razgrad-based side also progressed to this stage by virtue of a 2-0 aggregate victory over Shakhtyor Soligursk of Belarus in the previous round, it has been a relatively serene start to the 2021-22 season, coming straight after a 3-0 friendly win over Austrian Bundesliga outfit LASK.
Any improvement on last year's dismal end to continental competition for the side currently managed by Valdas Dambrauskas - who finished stone last in Europa League Group J, without a solitary point and a minus 12 goal difference - would certainly be welcome, but the road to the group phase remains daunting.
Though now within touching distance of Europe's top table, Dambrauskas came from rather more humble beginnings, having studied at London Metropolitan University while working in several English academies, including at Fulham and Brentford. His first senior managerial position was with Kingsbury London Tigers in the Spartan South Midlands Football League Premier Division, so a trip to Mura's modest 3,872-capacity Stadion Fazanerija on Wednesday should hold few fears.
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Team News
Mura's squad contains no players with any big-league experience, but midfielders Nino Kouter and Luka Bobicanec plus former Slovenia Under-21 wide man Ziga Kous all impressed in the title-winning campaign.
Each of the trio were on target in the 5-0 thrashing of Shkendija last week, while Croatian forward Mihael Klepac bagged a double, and he should start as one of a front two for the home side.
Ludogorets, meanwhile, set up in a 4-3-3 for both legs of their first round tie and are likely to do the same again in Slovenia this time out.
Head coach Valdas Dambrauskas is not poised to make many changes to his multinational side on Wednesday, but the Ghanaian duo of Bernard Tekpetey and former Feyenoord winger Elvis Manu appeared as second-half substitutes in the recent Super Cup triumph, and the former is now in contention to start alongside Kiril Despodov and veteran striker Claudiu Keseru up front.
Brazilian midfielder Cauly scored in the home tie against Shakhtyor, so will be expected to produce once again, having tallied six goals and six assists in the league last term.
NS Mura possible starting lineup:
Obradovic; Gorenc, Marusko, Kamicnic; Sturm, Horvat, Bobicanec, Kouter, Kous; Cipot, Klepac
Ludogorets Razgrad possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Nedyalkov, Plastun, Verdon, Ikoko; Badji, Goncalves, Cauly; Despodov, Keseru, Wanderson
We say: NS Mura 1-2 Ludogorets Razgrad
Miracle club Mura's shaky form includes a pair of 4-0 friendly defeats against higher-profile opponents and a galling 3-0 setback on the opening day of the league season, but they cruised through the first qualification round.
Ludogorets, though, represent a step up in class, as they can call upon several squad members with numerous European campaigns on their CV and look capable of scoring when offered the chance. Therefore, an away win is on the cards, with the Slovenians having it all to do next week on home soil.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NS Mura win with a probability of 45.9%. A win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 31.14% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a NS Mura win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.09%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
