Nantes will endeavour to march to the Coupe de France semi-finals when they welcome second-tier side Bastia to the Stade de la Beaujoire for the quarter-finals on Thursday night.
Les Canaris eased past fellow top-flight outfit Brest in the previous round to make it this far, while their visitors dumped Reims out of the tournament on penalties.
Match preview
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Sitting comfortably in mid-table obscurity in Ligue 1, Nantes are highly unlikely to be dragged into another fight for survival at this stage of the season or challenge for a European berth, so Antoine Kombouare may very well elect to prioritise a piece of silverware here.
Les Canaris are in with a realistic shot of making the semi-finals and were comfortable 2-0 winners over Brest in the last-16, as a brace for Ludovic Blas saw Nantes advance to the quarter-finals for just the second time in six seasons.
However, Kombouare was forced to witness his side go down 1-0 to Champions League-chasing Strasbourg at the weekend in Ligue 1 courtesy of Dimitri Lienard's thunderous effort, but the hosting manager can look back over the winter period and give himself a pat on the back.
Indeed, Nantes head into the quarter-final having won four and drawn one of their last five in all competitions at the Stade de la Beaujoire - scoring 11 goals and keeping three clean sheets in that hot streak on home soil - but Bastia know what it takes to get the better of Ligue 1 opposition.
The last-16 has proven to be Bastia's Achilles heel in years gone by, but the Ligue 2 side ensured that the curse would not bedevil them once more as they came up trumps in a nail-biting penalty shootout with Reims to advance to the final eight.
Andreaw Gravillon missed the crucial spot kick for Les Rouges et Blancs after a 1-1 draw in normal time, with Bastia also getting the better of newly-promoted top-flight side Clermont to keep their memorable cup run going.
Regis Brouard's side are going through a sticky patch in the second tier, though - now winless in three after being held to a 1-1 draw at home to Pau at the weekend - but the opportunity to make history will soon present itself to this crop of players.
The 1981 Coupe de France champions have not made an appearance in the semi-finals since falling at the final hurdle in the 2001-02 edition - losing 1-0 to Lorient in the final - and they have failed to score in seven of their last eight encounters with Nantes, with five of them remarkably finishing 0-0.
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Team News
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With the Africa Cup of Nations now done and dusted, Nantes will soon be able to welcome Jean-Charles Castelletto, Charles Traore and Kalifa Coulibaly back to the fold, potentially in time for this game.
Castelletto may be given more time to recover, though, and midfielder Samuel Moutoussamy will also be absent after leaving the field with a hamstring injury against Strasbourg.
Kombouare is already dealing with the loss of Wylan Cyprien though COVID-19 so may therefore be forced to utilise Blas in a deeper role, allowing Roli Pereira de Sa to return to the XI.
As for Bastia, Brouard will be boosted by two returning defenders ahead of Thursday's game, with left-back Kylian Kaiboue and centre-back Dominique Guidi now back from their respective bans.
Guidi's return to the heart of the defence could see Lloyd Palun drop down to the bench, but Harrison Manzala and Thomas Vincensini remain on the injured list.
Even with Kaiboue now ready to take his place on the left-hand side, Kevin Schur will not cede his place easily after playing the full 90 in the previous win over Reims.
Nantes possible starting lineup:
Lafont; Appiah, Pallois, Girotto, Traore; Chirivella, Blas; Geubbels, Pereira de Sa, Simon; Kolo Muani
Bastia possible starting lineup:
Placide; Le Cardinal, Bocognano, Guidi, Sainati, Schur; Vincent, Sylla; Salles-Lamonge; Santelli, Magri
We say: Nantes 1-0 Bastia
Bastia have not fluked their way to the quarter-finals - Brouard's side have produced some solid defensive displays and can feel quietly optimistic about their chances of advancing.
However, Nantes have turned the Stade de la Beaujoire into a fortress in recent weeks and have some distinguished names in the final third, so we expect Les Canaris to book their spot in the semi-finals, but not without a fight.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 48.07%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Bastia win was 0-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nantes would win this match.
