Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 53.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 22.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Hartlepool United |
53.93% ( -0.62) | 23.48% ( 0.37) | 22.59% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 53.9% ( -0.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.36% ( -1.31) | 46.64% ( 1.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.09% ( -1.24) | 68.91% ( 1.24) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.79% ( -0.7) | 17.21% ( 0.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.51% ( -1.24) | 47.49% ( 1.24) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.11% ( -0.5) | 34.88% ( 0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.37% ( -0.53) | 71.62% ( 0.52) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Hartlepool United |
1-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.3% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.81% Total : 53.93% | 1-1 @ 11.12% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.47% | 0-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.05% Total : 22.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barnet | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
2 | York City | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 25 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
4 | Rochdale | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 23 |
5 | Gateshead | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 23 |
6 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 23 |
7 | Eastleigh | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 21 |
8 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 18 |
10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 17 |
11 | Halifax TownHalifax | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 17 |
12 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
13 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 15 |
14 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
15 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
17 | Tamworth | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
18 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 13 |
19 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
20 | Braintree TownBraintree | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 10 |
21 | Boston UnitedBoston | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 |
22 | Fylde | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 9 |
23 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 5 |
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