Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 54.62%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gateshead would win this match.
Result | ||
Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool United |
54.62% ( -0.13) | 21.92% ( -0.03) | 23.45% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 60.33% ( 0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.34% ( 0.3) | 38.65% ( -0.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.04% ( 0.32) | 60.95% ( -0.32) |
Gateshead Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.84% ( 0.06) | 14.16% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.16% ( 0.12) | 41.83% ( -0.12) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.28% ( 0.29) | 29.71% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.22% ( 0.36) | 65.77% ( -0.36) |
Score Analysis |
Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool United |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.04% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 3.38% Total : 54.62% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.92% | 1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.11% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.1% Total : 23.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barnet | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
2 | York City | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 25 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
4 | Rochdale | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 23 |
5 | Gateshead | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 23 |
6 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 23 |
7 | Eastleigh | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 21 |
8 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 18 |
10 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 17 |
11 | Halifax TownHalifax | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 17 |
12 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
13 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 15 |
14 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
15 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
17 | Tamworth | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
18 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 13 |
19 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
20 | Braintree TownBraintree | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 10 |
21 | Boston UnitedBoston | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 |
22 | Fylde | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 9 |
23 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 5 |
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