Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 54.62%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-2 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gateshead would win this match.
Result | ||
Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool United |
54.62% ( -0.13) | 21.92% ( -0.03) | 23.45% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 60.33% ( 0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.34% ( 0.3) | 38.65% ( -0.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.04% ( 0.32) | 60.95% ( -0.32) |
Gateshead Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.84% ( 0.06) | 14.16% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.16% ( 0.12) | 41.83% ( -0.12) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.28% ( 0.29) | 29.71% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.22% ( 0.36) | 65.77% ( -0.36) |
Score Analysis |
Gateshead | Draw | Hartlepool United |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 8.04% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 3.38% Total : 54.62% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.92% | 1-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.11% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.1% Total : 23.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 |
2 | York City | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 38 |
3 | Barnet | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 37 |
4 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Gateshead | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 34 |
6 | Rochdale | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 30 |
7 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 29 |
8 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 28 |
9 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 28 |
10 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 27 |
11 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 25 |
12 | Eastleigh | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 24 |
13 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 22 |
14 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 22 |
15 | Tamworth | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 22 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 21 |
17 | Woking | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 20 |
18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 19 |
19 | Braintree TownBraintree | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 19 |
20 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
21 | Fylde | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 18 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 16 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 11 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 43 | -28 | 8 |
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