UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 22, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Belgium
2 - 1
Wales

De Bruyne (10'), Batshuayi (37')
Martinez (90+7')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Moore (50')
Mepham (49'), Ampadu (59'), Bale (78')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Belgium and Wales, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Poland 0-1 Belgium
Tuesday, June 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	4	5	10
2	Belgium	4	3	7
3	Poland	4	-5	4
4	Wales	4	-3	1

Wales

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Netherlands 3-2 Wales
Tuesday, June 14 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	4	5	10
2	Belgium	4	3	7
3	Poland	4	-5	4
4	Wales	4	-3	1

With these two teams extremely familiar with each other, we anticipate this fixture remaining competitive throughout the 90 minutes. Nevertheless, we cannot back against Belgium on familiar territory, Martinez's men potentially making sure of the three points during the closing stages. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 54.85%. A win for Wales had a probability of 24.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.96%) and 3-1 (6.64%). The likeliest Wales win was 1-2 (6.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Belgium in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Belgium.

Result
Belgium	Draw	Wales
54.85% ( 0.11)	20.88% ( -0.13)	24.26% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 65.22% (

0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.3% (

0.65)

32.7% (

-0.65)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.62% (

0.74)

54.38% (

-0.75)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.9% (

0.24)

12.1% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.35% (

0.51)

37.65% (

-0.51)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.19% (

0.37)

25.81% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.23% (

0.5)

60.77% (

-0.5)

Score Analysis

Belgium 54.85%

Wales 24.26%

Draw 20.88%

Belgium	Draw	Wales
2-1 @ 9.43% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.59% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 4.5% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.51% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.04) 5-2 @ 1% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.7% Total : 54.85%	1-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.12% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.41% Total : 20.88%	1-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.31% Total : 24.26%