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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Germany national football team
Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Mar 22, 2025 at 11pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Italy national football team

Germany
vs.
Italy

Coverage of the Nations League Quarter-Finals clash between Germany and Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Germany

All competitions
Last Game: Hungary 1-1 Germany
Tuesday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Italy vs. Germany
Wednesday, March 19 at 11pm in Nations League

Italy

All competitions
Last Game: Italy 1-3 France
Sunday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Italy vs. Germany
Wednesday, March 19 at 11pm in Nations League
Current League A2 Standings P GD PTS
1France6613
2Italy6513
3Belgium6-34
4Israel6-84

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Germany win with a probability of 60.02%. A draw has a probability of 22% and a win for Italy has a probability of 18.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Italy win it is 0-1 (5.49%).

Result
GermanyDrawItaly
60.02%21.95%18.03%
Both teams to score 51.63%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.87%46.12%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.57%68.42%
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.05%14.95%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.64%43.36%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.7%39.29%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24%76%
Score Analysis
    Germany 60%
    Italy 18.03%
    Draw 21.94%
GermanyDrawItaly
1-0 @ 11.16%
2-0 @ 10.6%
2-1 @ 9.91%
3-0 @ 6.72%
3-1 @ 6.28%
4-0 @ 3.19%
4-1 @ 2.98%
3-2 @ 2.93%
4-2 @ 1.39%
5-0 @ 1.21%
5-1 @ 1.13%
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 60%
1-1 @ 10.42%
0-0 @ 5.87%
2-2 @ 4.63%
3-3 @ 0.91%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 21.94%
0-1 @ 5.49%
1-2 @ 4.87%
0-2 @ 2.56%
1-3 @ 1.52%
2-3 @ 1.44%
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 18.03%

Head to Head
Mar 19, 2025
11pm
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Italy  
I
vs.
G
   Germany
Jun 14, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Germany
5-2
Italy
Kimmich (10'), Gundogan (45+4' pen.), Muller (51'), Werner (68', 69')
Rudiger (61'), Sane (82')
Gnonto (78'), Bastoni (90+4')
> Preview
Jun 4, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Italy
1-1
Germany
Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')
Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Italy
0-0
Germany
Tah (61'), Gundogan (84')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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