Nations League | League A
Sep 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Parc des Princes
France1 - 3Italy
Reaction
Arsenal handed new North London derby concern as defender sustains freak injury
Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori is forced off with an injury in Italy's Nations League clash with France, nine days before the North London derby.
Sep 6, 21:57
Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori 'out' of national team - will he be fit for Tottenham?
Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori reportedly withdraws from the Italy squad following the calf injury he sustained against France on Friday evening.
Sep 8, 15:10
The Match
Match Report
Italy recover from an early setback to record a 3-1 victory over France in their opening game of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between France and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how France could line up for Friday's Nations League clash with Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Spain 2-1 France
Tuesday, July 9 at 8pm in European Championship
Tuesday, July 9 at 8pm in European Championship
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | France | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Poland | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 56.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Italy had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| France | Draw | Italy |
56.96% ( -0.41) | 25.12% ( 0.19) | 17.92% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 42.43% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
