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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Italy national football team
Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Mar 19, 2025 at 11pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Germany national football team

Italy
vs.
Germany

Coverage of the Nations League Quarter-Finals clash between Italy and Germany.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Last Game: Italy 1-3 France
Sunday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Current League A2 Standings P GD PTS
1France6613
2Italy6513
3Belgium6-34
4Israel6-84

Germany

All competitions
Last Game: Hungary 1-1 Germany
Tuesday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Italy win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Germany has a probability of 34.6% and a draw has a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.23%) and 2-0 (5.95%). The likeliest Germany win is 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.69%).

Result
ItalyDrawGermany
41.74%23.66%34.6%
Both teams to score 62.32%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.42%39.57%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.07%61.92%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.7%19.29%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.96%51.04%
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.23%22.77%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.53%56.46%
Score Analysis
    Italy 41.74%
    Germany 34.6%
    Draw 23.65%
ItalyDrawGermany
2-1 @ 8.8%
1-0 @ 7.23%
2-0 @ 5.95%
3-1 @ 4.83%
3-2 @ 3.57%
3-0 @ 3.26%
4-1 @ 1.99%
4-2 @ 1.47%
4-0 @ 1.34%
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 41.74%
1-1 @ 10.69%
2-2 @ 6.51%
0-0 @ 4.39%
3-3 @ 1.76%
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 23.65%
1-2 @ 7.91%
0-1 @ 6.5%
0-2 @ 4.81%
1-3 @ 3.9%
2-3 @ 3.21%
0-3 @ 2.37%
1-4 @ 1.44%
2-4 @ 1.19%
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 34.6%

Head to Head
Jun 14, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Germany
5-2
Italy
Kimmich (10'), Gundogan (45+4' pen.), Muller (51'), Werner (68', 69')
Rudiger (61'), Sane (82')
Gnonto (78'), Bastoni (90+4')
> Preview
Jun 4, 2022 7.45pm
League A
Italy
1-1
Germany
Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')
Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
International Friendlies
Italy
0-0
Germany
Tah (61'), Gundogan (84')
> Match Report
Jul 2, 2016 8pm
Quarter-Finals
Germany
1-1
Italy
Ozil (65')
Hummels (90'), Schweinsteiger (112')
Bonucci (78' pen.)
Sturaro (56'), De Sciglio (57'), Parolo (59'), Pelle (91'), Giaccherini (103')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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