UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Relegation Playoff | 1st Leg

Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Loule

Gibraltar
0 - 1
Lithuania

(Lithuania win 2-0 on aggregate)

Ruiz (82')
Coleing (26')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kucys (60')
Girdvainis (8'), Lasickas (16'), Paulauskas (32'), Gineitis (44')
Girdvainis (71')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Gibraltar and Lithuania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gibraltar

All competitions

Last Game: Gibraltar 0-6 Netherlands
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	8	26	22
2	Netherlands	8	10	18
3	Greece	8	6	13
4	Republic of Ireland	8	-1	6
5	Gibraltar	8	-41	0

Lithuania

Last Game: Cyprus 1-0 Lithuania
Sunday, November 19 at 4pm in International Friendlies

We said: Gibraltar 0-2 Lithuania

Whether it would be more beneficial in the short-term to drop into League D given that a routine playoff spot could be on the cards is up for debate, but Lithuania will see this tie as an opportunity to claim two important wins which will help morale and their World Ranking. Gibraltar had shown signs of improvement when being promoted to League C a few years back, but 2023 saw them regress heavily, and back-to-back defeats are likely this week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 76.49%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 5.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-2 with a probability of 18.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (18.21%) and 0-3 (12.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.01%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 1-0 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 18.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lithuania would win this match.

Result
Gibraltar	Draw	Lithuania
5.99% ( -0.54)	17.52% ( 0.43)	76.49% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 27.74% (

-3.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.2% (

-3.27)

56.8% (

3.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.26% (

-2.69)

77.73% (

2.69)

Gibraltar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

31.98% (

-3.53)

68.02% (

3.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

5.77% (

-1.46)

94.23% (

1.45)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.75% (

-0.94)

13.25% (

0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.97% (

-1.93)

40.03% (

1.93)

Score Analysis

Gibraltar 5.99%

Lithuania 76.47%

Draw 17.52%

Gibraltar	Draw	Lithuania
1-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.25) Other @ 1.16% Total : 5.99%	0-0 @ 9.01% ( 1.07) 1-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.31) Other @ 0.12% Total : 17.52%	0-2 @ 18.4% ( 0.99) 0-1 @ 18.21% ( 1.58) 0-3 @ 12.4% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.55) 0-4 @ 6.27% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 4.78% ( -0.56) 0-5 @ 2.53% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.38) 1-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.25) Other @ 2.47% Total : 76.47%