MX23RW : Wednesday, March 26 10:48:23| >> :600:14138977:14138977:
Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
Lithuania national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas
Serbia national football team

Lithuania
1 - 3
Serbia

Paulauskas (45')
Cernych (23'), Paulauskas (35')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Mitrovic (21', 32', 43')
Zivkovic (38'), Milinkovic-Savic (84'), Mitrovic (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Lithuania and Serbia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lithuania

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lithuania 2-2 Montenegro
Thursday, September 7 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Serbia

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Serbia 1-2 Hungary
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

We said: Lithuania 0-2 Serbia

 Serbia should expect to do the double over lowly Lithuania, who simply cannot buy a win and could be bound for bottom place in Group G. The gulf in class between the teams will be apparent, but a dogged rearguard action by the home side may keep the scoreline respectable. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 74.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 8.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.

Result
LithuaniaDrawSerbia
8.87% (0.2389 0.24) 16.87% (0.302 0.3) 74.26% (-0.542 -0.54)
Both teams to score 41.96% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.06% (-0.55399999999999 -0.55)44.93% (0.554 0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.71% (-0.53299999999999 -0.53)67.29% (0.533 0.53)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.89% (0.185 0.18)53.11% (-0.185 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.28% (0.117 0.12)86.71% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)
Serbia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.48% (-0.28400000000001 -0.28)10.51% (0.282 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.8% (-0.645 -0.64)34.19% (0.644 0.64)
Score Analysis
    Lithuania 8.87%
    Serbia 74.24%
    Draw 16.87%
LithuaniaDrawSerbia
1-0 @ 3.53% (0.102 0.1)
2-1 @ 2.52% (0.057 0.06)
2-0 @ 1.12% (0.038 0.04)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 8.87%
1-1 @ 7.96% (0.137 0.14)
0-0 @ 5.58% (0.132 0.13)
2-2 @ 2.84% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 16.87%
0-2 @ 14.16%
0-1 @ 12.57% (0.15 0.15)
0-3 @ 10.63% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-2 @ 8.96% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
1-3 @ 6.73% (-0.046 -0.05)
0-4 @ 5.99% (-0.148 -0.15)
1-4 @ 3.79% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-5 @ 2.7% (-0.101 -0.1)
2-3 @ 2.13% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-5 @ 1.71% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.2% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.01% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 74.24%

How you voted: Lithuania vs Serbia

Lithuania
13.7%
Draw
13.7%
Serbia
72.5%
51
Head to Head
Mar 24, 2023 7.45pm
Group Stage
Serbia
2-0
Lithuania
Tadic (16'), Vlahovic (53')
> Preview
Oct 14, 2019 7.45pm
Group Stage
Lithuania
1-2
Serbia
Kazlauskas (79')
Laukzemis (90'), Kazlauskas (92')
Mitrovic (49', 53')
Ljajic (80')
Jun 10, 2019 7.45pm
Group Stage
Serbia
4-1
Lithuania
Mitrovic (20', 34'), Jovic (35'), Ljajic (92')
Mitrovic (71')
Novikovas (71' pen.)
Laukzemis (40'), Simkus (59'), Chvedukas (83')
Nov 20, 2018 7.45pm
League Phase
Serbia
4-1
Lithuania
Zulpa (51' og.), Mitrovic (58'), Prijovic (71'), Ljajic (74')
Petravicius (64')
Girdvainis (54')
Sep 7, 2018 7.45pm
League Phase
Lithuania
0-1
Serbia

Novikovas (81')
Tadic (38' pen.)
Rodic (41'), Maksimovic (48')
rhs 2.0
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