UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League B

Sep 3, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

VEB Arena

Russia
3 - 1
Serbia

Dzyuba (48' pen., 81'), Karavayev (69')
Cheryshev (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mitrovic (78')
Pavlovic (46'), Maksimovic (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Russia and Serbia, including team news and injury news.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 52.15%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 24.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Serbia win was 0-1 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.

Result
Russia	Draw	Serbia
52.15%	23.76%	24.09%

Both teams to score 54.79%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.67%

46.33%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.38%

68.62%

Russia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.25%

17.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.56%

48.44%

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.62%

33.38%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30%

70%

Score Analysis

Russia 52.15%

Serbia 24.09%

Draw 23.75%

Russia	Draw	Serbia
1-0 @ 10.24% 2-1 @ 9.71% 2-0 @ 8.85% 3-1 @ 5.6% 3-0 @ 5.1% 3-2 @ 3.07% 4-1 @ 2.42% 4-0 @ 2.21% 4-2 @ 1.33% Other @ 3.62% Total : 52.15%	1-1 @ 11.23% 0-0 @ 5.93% 2-2 @ 5.33% 3-3 @ 1.12% Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.75%	0-1 @ 6.5% 1-2 @ 6.17% 0-2 @ 3.57% 1-3 @ 2.26% 2-3 @ 1.95% 0-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.34% Total : 24.09%