We say: Wales 1-0 Iceland
Wales have not been pulling up trees on the attacking front over the past six months, but Bellamy's men should back themselves to keep Iceland at arm's length in Cardiff after their dogged defensive display in Turkey.
Fatigue on both sides after respective long journeys could give rise to a drab, low-scoring affair, but the Dragons have our backing to come up with the crucial moment and ensure at least a second-placed finish in the section.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Wales win with a probability of 64.57%. A draw has a probability of 20.7% and a win for Iceland has a probability of 14.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Iceland win it is 0-1 (4.95%).
-0.93) 
0.79) 
