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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Turkey national football team
Nations League | League B
Sep 9, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Goztepe Gursel Aksel Stadi (Izmir)
Iceland national football team

Turkey
3 - 1
Iceland

Akturkoglu (2', 52', 88')
Kahveci (86')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Palsson (37')
Leo Gretarsson (44'), Teitur Thordarson (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Nations League clash between Turkey and Iceland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Turkey

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Wales 0-0 Turkey
Friday, September 6 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Iceland

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Iceland 2-0 Montenegro
Friday, September 6 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Turkey 1-1 Iceland

 This is a very intriguing match, as Turkey will be aiming for their first win in the section, but Iceland were impressive last time out. It could go either way, with a narrow victory certainly a possibility, but we are struggling to separate them here and have ultimately settled on a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 17.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 1-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.

Result
TurkeyDrawIceland
61.76% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 20.41% (0.095000000000002 0.1) 17.82% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 56.43% (-0.531 -0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.43% (-0.61 -0.61)39.56% (0.60599999999999 0.61)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.08% (-0.637 -0.64)61.91% (0.633 0.63)
Turkey Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.67% (-0.19099999999999 -0.19)12.32% (0.185 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.87% (-0.395 -0.39)38.12% (0.39100000000001 0.39)
Iceland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.36% (-0.468 -0.47)35.63% (0.462 0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.59% (-0.486 -0.49)72.4% (0.48100000000001 0.48)
Score Analysis
    Turkey 61.76%
    Iceland 17.82%
    Draw 20.41%
TurkeyDrawIceland
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.011999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.62% (0.132 0.13)
1-0 @ 9.19% (0.192 0.19)
3-1 @ 6.93% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-0 @ 6.72% (0.044 0.04)
4-1 @ 3.63% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.58% (-0.068 -0.07)
4-0 @ 3.52% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.87% (-0.049 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.52% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.47% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.78%
Total : 61.76%
1-1 @ 9.49% (0.08 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.12% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.39% (0.122 0.12)
3-3 @ 1.23% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 20.41%
1-2 @ 4.89% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-1 @ 4.53% (0.071 0.07)
0-2 @ 2.34% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.76% (-0.043 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.68% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 17.82%

How you voted: Turkey vs Iceland

Turkey
72.4%
Draw
16.4%
Iceland
11.2%
214
Head to Head
Nov 14, 2019 5pm
Group Stage
Turkey
0-0
Iceland
Tufan (8'), Yokuslu (82'), Under (91'), Celik (94')
Ingvi Traustason (36'), Sigthorsson (84')
Jun 11, 2019 7.45pm
Group Stage
Iceland
2-1
Turkey
Sigurdsson (21', 32')
Hallfredsson (18'), Bjarnason (72')
Tokoz (40')
Tokoz (23'), Yilmaz (52'), Ayhan (55'), Celik (56')
Oct 6, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Turkey
0-3
Iceland
Gudmundsson (32'), Bjarnason (39'), Arnason (50')
Oct 9, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
Iceland
2-0
Turkey
Toprak (42' og.), Finnbogason (44')
Oct 13, 2015 7.45pm
Qualifiers
Turkey
1-0
Iceland
Inan (89')
Tosun (86')
Tore (77')

Berg Gudmundsson (23')
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