Iceland put a lot into their friendly with England, and it would therefore not be a surprise to see a drop-off in performance here. Netherlands will be determined to enter Euro 2024 off the back of a win, meanwhile, and we can see the home side navigating their way to a narrow success on Monday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 67.14%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 13.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.

Result
Netherlands	Draw	Iceland
67.14% ( 0.83)	19.41% ( -0.2)	13.45% ( -0.63)

Both teams to score 49.32% (

-1.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.24% (

-0.52)

43.75% (

0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.85% (

-0.51)

66.14% (

0.51)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.92% (

0.08)

12.08% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.38% (

0.16)

37.61% (

-0.16)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.09% (

-1.26)

43.91% (

1.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.95% (

-1.05)

80.05% (

1.05)

Score Analysis

Netherlands 67.13%

Iceland 13.45%

Draw 19.41%

Netherlands	Draw	Iceland
2-0 @ 11.84% ( 0.33) 1-0 @ 11.21% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 3.63% 3-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.35% Total : 67.13%	1-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.01% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.87% Total : 19.41%	0-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.35% Total : 13.45%