In a matchup of worst versus first in the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer (MLS), the New England Revolution welcome Inter Miami to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Saturday.
A 1-0 defeat to Toronto has the Revs in the basement of the Eastern Conference, while the Herons lead the Supporters' Shield standings following a 3-1 come-from-behind victory over Nashville SC.
Match preview
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There was plenty of optimism in Greater Boston ahead of the 2024 campaign when the club announced the appointment of Caleb Porter as manager, one of the most successful coaches in league history, guiding two different teams to the MLS Cup.
Instead, what we have seen from the Revs so far, is one disappointment after another, suffering six league defeats after just eight fixtures, three fewer than they had throughout the previous campaign.
Even though we are still in the early stages of the Porter era as manager, it feels like he is very much on the hot seat, as this once-gifted attacking side have netted a league-low five times in this competition, going goalless in consecutive domestic contests.
Since the beginning of March, New England have only been in front on two occasions in all competitions, winning both times while suffering three defeats over that stretch by three or more goals.
With a mere four points in eight MLS encounters, it is the fewest that the Revolution have accumulated to this stage of a domestic campaign in the 21st century.
If there is one thing going for them ahead of this match, it might be their success at home versus the Herons, winning two of their three MLS matches against Miami at Gillette Stadium, outscoring them by a 5-1 margin in those previous two victories combined.
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After exiting the CONCACAF Champions Cup (CCC) earlier this month, Miami's focus will now be on trying to lift the MLS Cup for the first time.
Since Monterrey knocked them out of the CCC, the Herons have won back-to-back domestic encounters, giving them 18 points in 10 league contests, as many as they accumulated in their first 21 regular-season affairs last year.
While they still have their share of defensive issues to sort out, tied for the most goals conceded among MLS sides currently in a playoff position (15), Miami have reacted well all season when getting scored on, earning 11 points in 2024 when allowing the opening goal.
Tata Martino's men have two away victories in MLS this season in four encounters and would match their total number of road wins from the previous campaign if they can claim maximum points this weekend.
The underlying numbers suggest that the Herons are overachieving in 2024, as Pan American Soccer Analysis has them 19th in the league for expected points per game and 21st in expected goal differential, but analytics do not matter much when you have Lionel Messi at your disposal.
Their only away victory against the Revs in this competition occurred the first time they faced them in 2021 (1-0), the same year that New England set an MLS regular-season record for points (73).
Team News
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The Revs were without Jonathan Mensah last weekend, along with DeJuan Jones and Tommy McNamara, who are all dealing with hamstring strains, while Brandon Bye and Dylan Borrero are recovering from ACL injuries.
New England were active on the transfer market this week, acquiring defender Xavier Arreaga from the Seattle Sounders, giving up a 2025 international roster spot and General Allocation Money (GAM) in return, while signing goalkeeper Aljaz Ivacic through the 2025 MLS season and waiving their 2022 SuperDraft pick Jacob Jackson.
Mark-Anthony Kaye made just his fifth league appearance for the Revs last weekend, replacing Noel Buck, who sustained a knock, Andrew Farrell made his 325th MLS regular season start, the most in club history, and Carles Gil, who has three goals all-time against Miami, led his team in shots on target (three) versus Toronto last week.
Miami were without Jordi Alba, Serhiy Kryvtsov, Robert Taylor and Leonardo Campana against Nashville because of hamstring strains, while Ian Fray continues to recover from a torn ACL.
Facundo Farias tore his ACL earlier in the campaign and will not be back in 2024, Federico Redondo is on the long-term injured list after hurting his LCL, Diego Gomez has an ankle issue and Robbie Robinson is out with a knee injury.
With so many injuries, the Herons have been busy adding players to their roster, signing Matias Rojas from Corinthians on Tuesday until the end of the season with options for 2025 and 2026, while Leo Afonso made his first appearance last weekend since joining them earlier this month.
Sergio Busquets netted his first of the campaign for Miami last week, while Luis Suarez set up one of the two goals scored by Messi, the 50th time the Uruguayan has assisted on one of his goals, more than anyone has ever done in Messi's career.
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Ravas; Lima, Romney, Kessler, Spaulding; Harkes, Polster; N. Gil, C. Gil, Bajraktarevic; Vrioni
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Weigandt, Aviles, Freire, Negri; Bright, Busquets, Ruiz; Messi, Suarez, Afonso
We say: New England Revolution 0-3 Inter Miami
Even with all the injuries on the Miami side, their most important players appear to be healthy, which is bad news for a Revs side that look disorganised and out of sorts.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
