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Major League Soccer
Atlanta United
Major League Soccer
Mar 10, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
New England Revolution

Atlanta
4 - 1
New England

Almada (45+2' pen.), Giakoumakis (55' pen., 60', 74')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Gil (83')
Polster (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Atlanta United and New England Revolution, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

All competitions
Last Game: Columbus Crew 1-0 Atlanta
Saturday, February 24 at 7pm in Major League Soccer

New England Revolution

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last Game: New England 4-0 Alajuelense
Wednesday, March 6 at 11pm in CONCACAF Champions League

We said: Atlanta United 2-0 New England Revolution

 Atlanta could be fresh and rusty simultaneously having not played for two weeks, but the positives are likely to outweigh the negatives in that regard given that their opponents have had a busy schedule during that timeframe. The hosts clearly possess greater quality than the visitors, too, and that leads us to predict a comfortable home win. That would mean three successive league defeats for New England. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 49.26%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.21%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.

Result
Atlanta UnitedDrawNew England Revolution
49.26% (1.621 1.62) 22.45% (0.111 0.11) 28.28% (-1.74 -1.74)
Both teams to score 63.43% (-1.708 -1.71)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.26% (-1.714 -1.71)36.73% (1.707 1.71)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.1% (-1.885 -1.89)58.9% (1.878 1.88)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.74% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)15.25% (0.065000000000001 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.06% (-0.131 -0.13)43.93% (0.124 0.12)
New England Revolution Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.85% (-1.954 -1.95)25.14% (1.947 1.95)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.14% (-2.774 -2.77)59.85% (2.768 2.77)
Score Analysis
    Atlanta United 49.26%
    New England Revolution 28.28%
    Draw 22.45%
Atlanta UnitedDrawNew England Revolution
2-1 @ 9.36% (0.218 0.22)
1-0 @ 7.21% (0.572 0.57)
2-0 @ 6.78% (0.524 0.52)
3-1 @ 5.87% (0.123 0.12)
3-0 @ 4.25% (0.318 0.32)
3-2 @ 4.05% (-0.147 -0.15)
4-1 @ 2.76% (0.052 0.05)
4-0 @ 2% (0.146 0.15)
4-2 @ 1.9% (-0.073 -0.07)
5-1 @ 1.04% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 4.05%
Total : 49.26%
1-1 @ 9.96% (0.255 0.25)
2-2 @ 6.46% (-0.218 -0.22)
0-0 @ 3.84% (0.313 0.31)
3-3 @ 1.86% (-0.18 -0.18)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 22.45%
1-2 @ 6.87% (-0.215 -0.22)
0-1 @ 5.3% (0.148 0.15)
0-2 @ 3.66% (-0.106 -0.11)
1-3 @ 3.16% (-0.289 -0.29)
2-3 @ 2.97% (-0.28 -0.28)
0-3 @ 1.68% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-4 @ 1.09% (-0.169 -0.17)
2-4 @ 1.03% (-0.163 -0.16)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 28.28%

How you voted: Atlanta vs New England

Atlanta United
75.0%
Draw
25.0%
New England Revolution
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Jul 13, 2023 12.30am
New England
2-1
Atlanta
Polster (4'), Vrioni (9')
Polster (69'), Panayotou (82')
Chol (90+3')
Mosquera (80')
> Preview
Jun 1, 2023 12am
Atlanta
3-3
New England
Giakoumakis (56'), Almada (74'), Berry (87')
Pineda (23'), Ibarra (55'), Giakoumakis (81'), Guzan (83'), Gutman (90+2')
Gil (1', 90+3'), Wood (37')
Gonzalez (22'), Buck (52')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 6.30pm
New England
2-1
Atlanta
Vrioni (32' pen.), Bou (85')
Martinez (81')
> Preview
May 15, 2022 6.30pm
Atlanta
2-2
New England
Almada (15'), Araujo (63')
Gutman (68')
Buksa (30', 55')
McNamara (87'), Polster (90+3')
> Preview
Jul 17, 2021 10pm
Gameweek 15
Atlanta
0-1
New England

Franco (69'), Conway (75')
Bou (18')
Kessler (77')
> Preview
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami34228479493074
2Columbus Crew34199672403266
3FC CincinnatiCincinnati341851158481059
4Orlando City34157125950952
5Charlotte FCCharlotte FC34149114637951
6New York City FCNY City34148125449550
7New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls34111495550547
8CF MontrealMontreal341110134864-1643
9Atlanta UnitedAtlanta341010144649-340
10DC United341010145270-1840
11Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia34910156255737
12Toronto34114194061-2137
13Nashville SCNashville3499163854-1636
14New England RevolutionNew England3494213774-3731
15Chicago Fire3479184062-2230

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Los Angeles FCLos Angeles34197863432064
2Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy34197869501964
3Real Salt LakeSalt Lake341611765481759
4Seattle SoundersSeattle34169951351657
5Houston DynamoHouston34159104739854
6Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd34157125849952
7Colorado RapidsColorado34155146160150
8Portland TimbersPortland341211116556947
9Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver34138135249347
10Austin FCAustin34119143948-942
11Dallas34118155456-241
12St Louis City34813135063-1337
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas3487195166-1531
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes3463254178-3721
> Full Version


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