Premier League | Gameweek 37
May 15, 2022 at 2pm UK
Villa Park
We said: Aston Villa 1-1 Crystal Palace
Palace will enter this match full of confidence, but Villa had also been on a strong run before the setback against Liverpool. There is not an awful lot between the two teams, demonstrated by the league table, and we can see the pair playing out a low-scoring draw on Sunday afternoon.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.05% . A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 31.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.9% .
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.49%) . The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 0-1 (8.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%) . The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result Aston Villa Draw Crystal Palace 43.05% ( 0.76) 25.89% ( -0.07) 31.06% ( -0.69)
Both teams to score 53.29% ( -0.07)
49.19% ( 0.05) 50.81% ( -0.05)
27.3% ( 0.04) 72.7% ( -0.04)
76.54% ( 0.39) 23.46% ( -0.4)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 42.53% ( 0.57) 57.47% ( -0.57)
69.62% ( -0.45) 30.38% ( 0.44)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 33.43% ( -0.53) 66.57% ( 0.53)
Aston Villa 43.05%
Crystal Palace 31.06%
Draw 25.89%
Aston Villa Draw Crystal Palace 1-0 @ 10.33% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.99% Total : 43.05% 1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.89% 0-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.14% Total : 31.06%
How you voted: Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Draw
Crystal Palace
147
rhs 2.0
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