Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 55.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.