Primeira Liga | Gameweek 11

Oct 30, 2022 at 6pm UK

Estádio Pina Manique

Casa Pia
1 - 0
Rio Ave

Godwin (66')
Taira (27'), Varela (57')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Aderlan (41'), Boateng (58'), Graca (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Rio Ave, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-1 Casa Pia
Saturday, October 22 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Rio Ave

All competitions

Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Portimonense
Monday, October 24 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Rio Ave completed the league double over Casa Pia when the sides met in the Segunda Liga last term and will be looking to pick up where they dropped off. However, the hosts have been decent on home turf this season and we are backing them to hold out for a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 35.63%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.5%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (11.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Rio Ave
35.63% ( 0.48)	28.77% ( -0.12)	35.6% ( -0.36)

Both teams to score 45.51% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.95% (

0.41)

61.05% (

-0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.97% (

0.31)

81.03% (

-0.3)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.47% (

0.53)

32.52% (

-0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.94% (

0.59)

69.05% (

-0.59)

Rio Ave Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.45% (

-0.02)

32.54% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.92% (

-0.03)

69.08% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 35.62%

Rio Ave 35.59%

Draw 28.76%

Casa Pia	Draw	Rio Ave
1-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.69% Total : 35.62%	1-1 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.58% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.76%	0-1 @ 11.88% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.68% Total : 35.59%