Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 58.12%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 18.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.41%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (6.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.