Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.68%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (11.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.