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Arouca
Benfica
Boavista
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Farense logo
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Nacional
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20
Feb 1, 2025 at 3.30pm UK
Estadio da Madeira
Arouca

Nacional
1 - 2
Arouca

Ulisses (45+1')
Vitor (24'), Penha (37'), Ulisses (52'), Esteves (71'), Abidi (87'), Sousa (90+8')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gozalbez (5'), Araujo (26' pen.)
Santos (90+8')
Popovic (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Nacional
Saturday, January 25 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Moreirense
Friday, January 24 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Nacional 1-1 Arouca

After stumbling into the campaign, Arouca have turned things around of late and will be looking to keep the ball rolling this weekend. However, Nacional have proven tough to crack on home turf and we predict that they will do just enough to force a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 50.06%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 25.97% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawArouca
25.97% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 23.96% (0.0090000000000003 0.01) 50.06% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Both teams to score 56.08% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)45.54% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.13% (0.0049999999999955 0)67.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.6% (0.051999999999992 0.05)31.4% (-0.050999999999998 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.23% (0.059000000000005 0.06)67.77% (-0.061000000000007 -0.06)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.75% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)18.25% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.71% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)49.29% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 25.97%
    Arouca 50.06%
    Draw 23.96%
NacionalDrawArouca
1-0 @ 6.64% (0.008 0.01)
2-1 @ 6.54% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 3.85% (0.01 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.53% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.15% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.49% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 25.97%
1-1 @ 11.29% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.73% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 5.56% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.96%
0-1 @ 9.75% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.6% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.29% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 5.45% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.7% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.15% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.32% (-0.004 -0)
0-4 @ 2% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.34% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.47%
Total : 50.06%

Head to Head
Aug 25, 2024 3.30pm
Gameweek 3
Arouca
1-0
Nacional
Araujo (27')
Rodrigues (74'), Mantl (90+7')

Garcia (22'), Butzke (49'), Esteves (73'), Reis (76'), Vitor (90+3'), Dias (90+6'), Margarido (90+2')
Jan 28, 2017 4pm
Nacional
1-1
Arouca
Agra (96' pen.)
Washington (48')
Miguel Prata Coelho (84')
Mateus (25'), Goiano (53'), Intima (55'), Sacramento (80'), Jubal (89')
Sacramento (93')
Aug 21, 2016 6pm
Arouca
2-0
Nacional
Crivellaro (24'), Zequinha (30')
Coelho (42')
May 1, 2016 6.15pm
Arouca
3-0
Nacional
Gonzalez (14', 64'), Mateus (38' pen.)
Coelho (11'), Adilson (31')

Washington (37'), Belkaroui (39'), Soares (49')
Belkaroui (40')
Jan 2, 2016 4pm
Nacional
2-2
Arouca
Agra (19' pen.), Gustavo (95')
Agra (44'), Correia (47')
Zequinha (14'), Simao (44')
Velasquez (18'), Rodrigues (35'), Simao (54'), Bracali (71'), Roque Junior (89')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon33247286275979
2Benfica33254483275679
3Porto33215762303268
4Braga33198654292565
5Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes331412747351254
6Santa ClaraSanta Clara33166113431354
7Casa Pia33129123842-445
8FamalicaoFamalicao331111114238444
9Estoril PraiaEstoril331110124453-943
10MoreirenseMoreirense33910143950-1137
11Rio AveRio Ave33910143854-1637
12AroucaArouca33811143148-1735
13Nacional3397173247-1534
14Gil Vicente3389163346-1333
15Estrela Amadora3378182446-2229
16SC FarenseFarense3369182444-2027
17AVS33512162557-3227
18BoavistaBoavista3366212355-3224


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