Rayo Vallecano will be looking to make use of home advantage when they take on Real Betis in the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on Wednesday night.
The two sides will meet at Estadio de Vallecas for the first match this week before the second leg of the fascinating last-four affair takes place in Seville on March 3.
Match preview
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Rayo have had to win five matches to reach this stage of the competition, overcoming Guijuelo, Bergantinos, Mirandes and Girona before beating Mallorca in the quarter-finals earlier this month.
Los Franjirrojos have never won the Copa del Rey, while they have reached the semi-finals of the competition for the first time since the 1981-82 campaign, which is an indication of their achievement.
Rayo were only promoted back to La Liga for the 2021-22 campaign via last season's Segunda Division playoffs, but they have had no trouble competing back at this level, picking up 31 points from 22 matches to sit ninth in the table, just five points behind fifth-placed Atletico Madrid.
The capital outfit are without a win in the league since December 18, though, picking up just one point from their last four matches, including two straight defeats against Athletic Bilbao and Celta Vigo.
Andoni Iraola's side played out a 1-1 draw with Betis when the two sides locked horns in the league last month, while they beat the Seville outfit on penalties in the Copa del Rey third round back in January 2020.
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Betis, meanwhile, will enter this contest off the back of a 2-0 home defeat to Villarreal in La Liga, which ended a run of four straight victories in all competitions.
Manuel Pellegrini's side are still enjoying an excellent campaign, though, sitting third in the table, two points clear of fourth-placed Barcelona, while they are also still in the Europa League.
Betis have impressed in this season's Copa del Rey, scoring four times in back-to-back wins over CFI Alicante and Talavera before winning by three clear goals against Real Valladolid on January 5.
The Green and Whites then beat Sevilla 2-1 in the round of 16 before thrashing Real Sociedad 4-0 in the quarter-finals to secure their position in the final four of the competition.
Betis are two-time winners of the Copa del Rey, last lifting the trophy in 2005, while they were last present in the semi-finals in 2018-19, losing 3-2 to Valencia on aggregate.
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Team News
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Rayo will again be missing Unai Lopez due to a hip problem, while Jose Pozo (COVID-19) and Martin Merquelanz (knee) will also be absent for the home side in the semi-final first leg.
Head coach Iraola is expected to make changes from the side that started against Celta in the league last time out, with Oscar Valentin, Isi Palazon, Oscar Trejo, Mario Suarez and Radamel Falcao potentially coming into the first XI.
Sergi Guardiola is also an option to start in the final third of the field, but it seems likely that the home side will again line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
As for Betis, Joaquin is out following a positive COVID-19 test, while Claudio Bravo and Martin Montoya are both unavailable for selection through injury.
Head coach Pellegrini will make changes from the side that started the league defeat to Villarreal, with Borja Iglesias potentially replacing Willian Jose in the final third of the field.
Alex Moreno, Victor Ruiz, Edgar Gonzalez and Youssouf Sabaly should also come back into the starting XI following the disappointing league loss to the Yellow Submarine.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Balliu, Suarez, Catena, Rodrigues; Comesana, Valentin; Palazon, Trejo, A Garcia; Falcao
Real Betis possible starting lineup:
Silva; Sabaly, Ruiz, Bartra, Moreno; Carvalho, Gonzalez; Juanmi, Canales, Fekir; Iglesias
We say: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Betis
Rayo have been excellent at home this season, impressing in both the Copa del Rey and La Liga, and we are finding it really difficult to back the capital side to lose on Wednesday. That said, Betis are also enjoying an impressive campaign, so we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw in the first leg of the semi-final.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 42.92%. A win for Real Betis had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Real Betis win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
