Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 45.86%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.