Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rubin Kazan win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rubin Kazan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rubin Kazan would win this match.