Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 46.06%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.17%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.