Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 51.46%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 22.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.