Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.