Spezia will be bidding to make it four Serie A victories in a row when they continue their 2021-22 campaign away to Salernitana on Monday night.
The visitors have climbed into 14th position in the table amid their excellent run of form, but Salernitana remain rooted to the bottom of the division on 10 points.
Match preview
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Salernitana secured a return to this level of football by finishing second in Serie B last term, and it was always going to be a challenging campaign for the club considering their lengthy absence from the top flight.
I Granata have found it difficult to compete for long periods of the season, picking up just 10 points from their 22 matches, boasting a record of three wins, two draws and 17 defeats to sit bottom of the table, eight points from the safety of 17th position, which is currently occupied by Venezia.
Unsurprisingly, they have the worst scoring record in the division, finding the back of the net on just 14 occasions and also have the poorest defensive record, conceding 53 times in total.
Salernitana recorded an impressive 2-1 victory away to Verona on January 9 but were unable to build on that result, losing their last two against Lazio and Napoli, conceding seven times in the process.
Stefano Colantuono's side also have the worst home record in Serie A this term, picking up just five points from 11 matches in front of their own supporters, while Spezia have recorded four wins on their travels.
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Spezia, who finished 15th in Serie A last season, found it difficult to pick up positive results in the opening months of the campaign, but their form in recent weeks has been hugely impressive.
Indeed, Thiago Motta's side have won four of their last five in the league, including each of their last three against Genoa, AC Milan and Sampdoria to rise up the table.
Indeed, boasting a record of seven wins, four draws and 12 defeats from 23 matches, Spezia are now 14th in the division on 25 points, some eight points clear of the relegation zone.
The Little Eagles have not actually been beaten in the league since December 13, when they lost at Roma, and they have won their last three Serie A games on their travels against Napoli, Genoa and AC Milan.
As a result, the visitors should enter Monday's contest full of confidence, looking to record their eighth league victory of the season against a Salernitana outfit that seem destined to return to Serie B.
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Team News
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Salernitana will be missing Francesco Di Tacchio, Matteo Ruggeri and Mamadou Coulibaly for Monday's contest through injury, while Federic Vaseli is suspended.
The home side were incredibly active during the January transfer window, though, and a number of new faces are expected to be on display for the strugglers in this match.
Indeed, Federico Fazio, Pasquale Mazzocchi, Emil Bohinen, Ivan Radovanovic and Lys Mousset are likely to feature for their new club, but Franck Ribery should retain his spot in the side.
As for Spezia, Simone Bastoni is out with a muscular problem, but Aimar Sher could shake off a hip complaint to feature for the visitors on Monday evening.
Head coach Motta is unlikely to make many changes from the side that started the 1-0 victory over Sampdoria before the break, providing that there are not any fitness issues in the build-up to the match.
Rey Manaj should again lead the line for the in-form outfit, although there could be a starting role for Guilio Maggiore in an attacking area.
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Mazzocchi, Dragusin, Fazio, Ranieri; Bohinen, Radovanovic, L Coulibaly; Verdi, Mousset, Ribery
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provodel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou, Reca; Kiwior, Sala; Verde, Maggiore, Gyasi; Manaj
We say: Salernitana 0-1 Spezia
Spezia's recent form has been excellent, and we are finding it difficult to predict anything other than an away victory here considering Salernitana's struggles, but a busy January window for the hosts will leave the supporters hopeful that their team's fortunes could change in the second half of the season.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
