Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 57.86%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 19.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
Result | ||
Atalanta BC | Draw | Genoa |
57.86% ( 0.25) | 23.01% ( -0.11) | 19.12% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 50.25% ( 0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.03% ( 0.28) | 48.96% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.95% ( 0.25) | 71.05% ( -0.26) |
Atalanta BC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.35% ( 0.19) | 16.65% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.5% ( 0.34) | 46.49% ( -0.34) |
Genoa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.28% ( 0.01) | 39.71% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.61% ( 0.01) | 76.39% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Atalanta BC | Draw | Genoa |
1-0 @ 11.85% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.85% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.99% Total : 57.85% | 1-1 @ 10.94% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.93% Total : 23.01% | 0-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 19.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 26 |
2 | Inter Milan | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 25 |
3 | Fiorentina | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
4 | Lazio | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 25 |
6 | Juventus | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
7 | AC Milan | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
8 | Bologna | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 18 |
9 | Udinese | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 16 |
10 | Empoli | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 15 |
11 | Torino | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
12 | Roma | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
13 | Parma | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 |
15 | Como | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
17 | Genoa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 10 |
18 | Lecce | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 9 |
19 | Monza | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
20 | VeneziaVenezia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
> Serie A Full Table |