In the final game of Serie A's 25th round, Fiorentina coach Vincenzo Italiano returns to the scene of his breakthrough success as a manager on Monday, as the Viola meet improving Spezia.
The hosts are unbeaten in their last four games and are seeking to set their longest streak without defeat in the top flight, while the visitors may have stumbled in the league but are now bound for the Coppa Italia semi-finals.
Match preview
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Having made it to the cup quarter-finals thanks to an incredible 5-2 win over nine-man Napoli in the previous round, Fiorentina travelled to Bergamo in midweek amid a typically inconsistent run of form in the league. Following a 6-0 success over Genoa by drawing 1-1 with improving Cagliari, the Viola then went on to lose 3-0 at home to Lazio last weekend.
Nevertheless, the Tuscan side edged past Atalanta and into the Coppa semis, after on-loan Krzysztof Piatek helped them to a 3-2 win at the Gewiss Stadium - continuing his remarkable record in Italy's national cup.
The Polish striker - formerly of Genoa and Milan - made his return to Serie A in last month's transfer window, and since 2018 has scored 12 times in nine Coppa Italia matches; more than any other player during that time.
Though Fiorentina's last cup triumph came as long ago as 2001, under the full-throttle management of former Spezia coach Italiano they have all the ingredients of a dangerous knockout side, and are set to face their nemesis Juventus in a two-legged tie in the coming weeks.
Now eighth in the Serie A standings, they had made a slow start to life without top scorer Dusan Vlahovic - who recently became the latest in a long line of Viola stars to join Juve - but with the confidence gained by Thursday's win, Fiorentina can attempt to bolster a faltering away record in the league.
After having won three of their opening four games on the road this season they have tasted victory just once in their last eight, and since the start of October, Italiano's men have picked up only five points outside of Florence.
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Yet to beat Fiorentina in Serie A, having managed only a draw followed by two 3-0 defeats since their 2020 promotion, Spezia will nonetheless host their Tuscan counterparts in their best form of the season.
Though they failed to claim all three points against bottom side Salernitana last time out - settling for a 2-2 draw after a spectacular pair of Simone Verdi free kicks were cancelled out by penalties from Rey Manaj and Daniele Verde - the Ligurians climbed as high as 14th in the table.
Four games unbeaten, including three consecutive wins against Scudetto challengers Milan and local rivals Genoa and Sampdoria, has helped Thiago Motta's men finally move on from the successful Italiano era and brought fresh hope of extending their stay in the Italian elite to a third season.
The Aquilotti have not been beaten in the league since mid-December, and will now be looking to record their eighth Serie A win of the season in their second straight Monday night contest.
Indeed, Spezia could achieve successive home wins in the top flight for only the second time, and welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Alberto Picco having been a far harder nut to crack at their headquarters - where they have conceded goals at almost half the rate they have when away.
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Team News
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While Spezia captain Guilio Maggiore is in contention to be passed fit to feature on Monday following his return to training, both Simone Bastoni (muscular) and Swedish midfielder Aimar Sher (hip) will not yet be available to Thiago Motta due to injury.
With two goals and two assists, the diminutive Daniele Verde has been directly involved in four of the club's last six goals in Serie A, so will certainly hope to retain his place in the side despite competition from Kevin Agudelo and Janis Antiste.
Albanian forward Rey Manaj should again lead the line for the in-form Aquiloti, as he continues his season-long loan from Barcelona.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina will be without the suspended midfield duo of Giacomo Bonaventura and Lucas Torreira, so Sofyan Amrabat could come in for an increasingly rare start, while Alfred Duncan and Youssef Maleh are also possible options for Vincenzo Italiano.
Up front, cup hero Krzysztof Piatek will vie with fellow January signing Arthur Cabral to be the focal point of the visitors' front three.
Free kick specialist Cristiano Biraghi has already scored four league goals this campaign - as many as he netted in the previous three Serie A seasons combined - and the Italy full-back will be looking to replicate his strike in the Viola's only other top-flight visit to Spezia, back in October 2020.
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provodel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou, Reca; Kiwior, Sala; Verde, Maggiore, Gyasi; Manaj
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Odriozola, Milenkovic, Martinez Quarta, Biraghi; Castrovilli, Amrabat, Maleh; Sottil, Piatek, Gonzalez
We say: Spezia 2-2 Fiorentina
Perhaps surprisingly, given their propensity to run hot and cold, Fiorentina have conceded the fewest shots in Serie A so far this season; while no team has conceded more attempts at goal than Spezia's 402.
Given the opportunity to strike, the Viola have sufficient attacking intent to score at least once, but may also be caught out at the back by a home side showing a much more coherent approach since the turn of the year.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
