The race to beat the drop continues in the Portuguese Primeira Liga as 16th-placed Tondela and 15th-placed Arouca square off at the Estadio Joao Cardoso on Saturday.
This will be the second meeting between the sides this season after the Arouquenses picked up a comfortable 2-0 victory when they met in October's reverse fixture.
Match preview
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Tondela failed to move out of the relegation zone last weekend as they fell to a humbling 4-0 defeat at the hands of title-chasing Porto at the Estadio do Dragao.
After Mehdi Taremi opened the scoring from the spot on the stroke of half time, Wenderson Galeno, Fabio Vieira and Francisco Conceicao all came off the bench to find the target and hand the Dragoes a comprehensive win.
The CDT Auriverdes have now failed to taste victory in any of their last six games in the league, claiming one point from the last 18 available, while managing just two wins in their last 11 since the start of the year.
This poor run has been owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where they boast the league's worst record with 52 goals conceded and have failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 straight league games, dating back to October's 2-0 win at Belenenses.
Tondela have picked up six wins, drawn three and lost 17 of their 26 games this season to collect 21 points and sit 16th in the Primeira Liga standings, four points above rock-bottom Belenenses and one behind Saturday's visitors just outside the relegation zone.
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Arouca, similarly, continue to struggle for form in the Primeira Liga as they suffered a slender 1-0 defeat against Pacos de Ferreira last time out.
In an end-to-end affair at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca, newly-signed midfielder Nicolas Gaitan scored his second goal in three games to hand the Pacenses their third win in four games.
Armando Evangelista's side head into the weekend winless in all but one of their last seven outings — claiming two draws and losing four — with a 3-1 victory at Vitoria de Guimaraes being the only exception.
Like the hosts, the Arouquenses have struggled to get going defensively in recent weeks, managing just one clean sheet in their last 16 outings, while shipping 30 goals in that time.
Their luck at the opposite end of the pitch has not been better either as they have scored just four goals in their last seven outings and are tied with Moreirense and Pacos de Ferreira for the league's second-worst record with 23 goals scored so far.
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Team News
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Tondela have announced that they have parted ways with 59-year-old head coach Pako Ayestaran following their loss to Porto last weekend, with Nuno Campos set to take over the reins.
However, Campos will be unable to call upon Manu as the Spanish defender will serve a one-match suspension for receiving his marching orders in the game against the Dragoes.
On the injury front, the CDT Auriverdes remain without Italian midfielder Simone Muratore, who has been sidelined since last September through a long-term injury.
Portuguese youngster Jota Goncalves is currently recuperating from a severe knee problem, while Naoufel Khacef also misses out after coming off injured against Rio Ave back in January.
As for Arouca, Fernando Augusto continues his spell on the sidelines after sustaining a shoulder problem against Sporting Lisbon back in October.
While Oday Dabbagh made his return from a six-week long injury in the game against Pacos de Ferreira last time out, Jose Manuel Velazquez remains out of contention for the Arouquenses through a severe knee injury.
Dabbagh started off the bench against the Pacenses, but the 23-year-old could return to the XI, leaving Arsenio Nunes, who is on a 12-match goal drought, sweating over his place.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Bebeto, Alves, Sagnam; Borges, Dantas, Augusto, D'Almeida, T Almeida; Anjos, Dadashov
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Braga; Thales, Basso, Galovic, Quaresma; L Silva, Moreira, Simao; Bukia, Dabbagh, A Silva
We say: Tondela 1-2 Arouca
Given the stakes of the game, we expect a thrilling contest with both sides taking the game to each other in search of all three points. While Tondela have managed just one draw from their last six home games, Arouca are unbeaten in three of their last four road games. That said, Arouca head into the game as slight favourites and we are backing them to come away with maximum points, albeit by the odd goal.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 33.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
