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Spain national football team
European Under-21s Championship | Group Stage
Jun 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
 
Croatia national football team

Spain U21s
1 - 0
Croatia U21s

Ruiz (1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Frigan (13'), Sego (34'), Stojkovic (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's European Under-21 Championship clash between Spain Under-21s and Croatia Under-21s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Romania U21s 0-3 Spain U21s
Wednesday, June 21 at 7.45pm in European Under-21 Championship
All competitions
Last Game: Ukraine U21s 2-0 Croatia U21s
Wednesday, June 21 at 5pm in European Under-21 Championship

We said: Spain Under-21s 3-0 Croatia Under-21s

Regardless of whether Spain decide to rotate for this contest, this represents a stiff challenge for their opponents. Although Croatia may pose more of a challenge than Romania, we still expect Spain to storm to a dominant victory and book their spot in the last eight in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia Under-21s win with a probability of 52.38%. A win for Spain Under-21s had a probability of 27.32% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.45%) and 0-2 (5.51%). The likeliest Spain Under-21s win was 2-1 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Spain Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Spain Under-21sDrawCroatia Under-21s
27.32% (0.061 0.06) 20.3% (-0.171 -0.17) 52.38% (0.102 0.1)
Both teams to score 70.83% (0.72699999999999 0.73)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
73.19% (0.904 0.9)26.8% (-0.912 -0.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
52.75% (1.141 1.14)47.24% (-1.149 -1.15)
Spain Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.42% (0.518 0.52)20.58% (-0.526 -0.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.88% (0.819 0.82)53.11% (-0.828 -0.83)
Croatia Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.18% (0.32900000000001 0.33)10.81% (-0.337 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.13% (0.739 0.74)34.86% (-0.746 -0.75)
Score Analysis
    Spain Under-21s 27.32%
    Croatia Under-21s 52.38%
    Draw 20.3%
Spain Under-21sDrawCroatia Under-21s
2-1 @ 6.19% (-0.061000000000001 -0.06)
3-2 @ 3.63% (0.072 0.07)
1-0 @ 3.52% (-0.143 -0.14)
3-1 @ 3.26% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 2.78% (-0.066 -0.07)
3-0 @ 1.47% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.43% (0.051 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.29% (0.028 0.03)
4-3 @ 1.06% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 27.32%
1-1 @ 7.83% (-0.206 -0.21)
2-2 @ 6.88% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
3-3 @ 2.69% (0.09 0.09)
0-0 @ 2.23% (-0.128 -0.13)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 20.3%
1-2 @ 8.7% (-0.106 -0.11)
1-3 @ 6.45% (0.012 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.51% (-0.157 -0.16)
2-3 @ 5.1% (0.091 0.09)
0-1 @ 4.95% (-0.212 -0.21)
0-3 @ 4.08% (-0.059 -0.06)
1-4 @ 3.59% (0.056 0.06)
2-4 @ 2.84% (0.089 0.09)
0-4 @ 2.27% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-5 @ 1.6% (0.047 0.05)
3-4 @ 1.5% (0.07 0.07)
2-5 @ 1.26% (0.056 0.06)
0-5 @ 1.01% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 52.38%

How you voted: Spain U21s vs Croatia U21s

Spain Under-21s
83.3%
Draw
0.0%
Croatia Under-21s
16.7%
6
Head to Head
May 31, 2021 5pm
Quarter-finals
Spain U21s
2-1
Croatia U21s
Puado (66', 110')
Mingueza (88'), Guillamon (90+3')
Ivanusec (90+4' pen.)
Musa (43'), Sutalo (63'), Bradaric (87'), Ivanusec (120+1')
rhs 2.0
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