Group K in the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers could be decided this week when Uganda face off against South Africa at the Mandela National Stadium in Kampala on Friday afternoon.
Both these sides will be putting their unbeaten records on the line here, and a win for either side will guarantee their spot in the final tournament to be held in Morocco next year.
Match preview
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While Uganda came into these qualifiers as the third-favourite to make it out of the group, they have so far defied the odds, notching up three wins and a draw to lead the standings heading into the final two games.
The Cranes regained pole position in the group last month when they overcame South Sudan 1-0 at home and 2-1 on the road, following a 2-0 victory over Congo on matchday two back in September.
The only points Paul Put's side have dropped in this competition was against their upcoming opponents in round one, when a stoppage-time equaliser by Thalente Mbatha denied them a famous victory on enemy territory.
Still, the Cranes have enjoyed a very productive year, losing only two of their nine matches in 2024, which were against Comoros in a friendly back in March and a 2-1 defeat to Algeria in World Cup qualifying in June.
However, while they will enter this match with confidence and a healthy buffer over third-placed Congo, it is worth pointing out that Uganda have never beaten this opponent in five previous attempts spanning the last two decades (W0 D1 L4).
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Meanwhile, after many years of underperforming on the international stage, South Africa finally returned to prominence this year when they had a very impressive 2023 AFCON campaign, beating DR Congo to claim third place.
Since then, Bafana Bafana played 11 games across all competitions and have remained unbeaten, posting a record of four wins and seven draws, while only failing to score in one match during that period.
Following their opening-round draw against Uganda, Hugo Broos's side claimed a 3-2 win over South Sudan and smashed in five without response against Congo in round three, but were held to a 1-1 draw by the Leopards four days later.
One major improvement seen by Bafana Bafana since the last AFCON has been in their attacking output, having scored 11 goals in this competition, as compared to four goals between September and November last year leading up to the tournament in the Ivory Coast.
The concern for the visitors, though, is that they are missing a few key attacking players for this month's fixtures, including Burnley striker Lyle Foster, who scored two goals for the team over the first four qualifier games.
Team News
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Put announced his 27-man squad for the final two games of AFCON qualifying last week and included two uncapped players in teenager John Paul Dembe and shot-stopper Mutwalibi Mugolofa.
Dembe, who plays for Allsvenskan outfit Hacken, recently finished as the top scorer with six goals in the zonal Under-20s African Championship, while Mugolofa has kept five clean sheets in six games for his club this season.
Additionally, the Cranes have called up Charles Lukwago and Isima Watenga, who play for Venda FC and Lamontville Golden Arrows respectively in the PSL, while former Baroka FC midfielder Khalid Aucho is also part of the squad.
Bafana Bafana, on the other hand, were dealt a late injury blow, with Mihlali Mayambela forced to withdraw from the squad last weekend after sustaining an injury for Cypriot outfit Aris Limassol.
As mentioned, Foster has remained in England, while the other notable absentee for South Africa is Themba Zwane, who has been ruled out for several months after sustaining a nasty injury against Congo last month.
Mothobi Mvala, Evidence Makgopa and Relebohile Mofokeng have been brought in to replace the injured trio, though there is still no space in the squad for Al Ahly's Percy Tau, who was originally a part of the preliminary selection list.
Uganda possible starting lineup:
Watenga; Awany, Mugabi, Lwaliwa, Kayondo; Aucho, Lwanga, Omedi; Okello, Dembe, Mato
South Africa possible starting lineup:
Williams; Mudau, Modiba, Mvala, Mobbie; Mokoena, Aubaas, Mokwana, Appollis; Rayners, Makgopa
We say: Uganda 1-1 South Africa
While South Africa have the better team on paper, they are missing several key players for this month's matches, particularly in the attacking areas, and we feel that Uganda will be able to get something from this match and secure their qualification in the process.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Devesh Jaganath
