Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.09%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 18.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.82%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Danubio
54.09% ( -0.42)	26.93% ( 0)	18.97% ( 0.41)

Both teams to score 39.63% (

0.55)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.03% (

0.39)

62.96% (

-0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.56% (

0.28)

82.44% (

-0.28)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.36% (

-0.01)

23.63% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.27% (

-0.02)

57.72% (

0.02)

Danubio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.89% (

0.73)

48.11% (

-0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.69% (

0.53)

83.31% (

-0.53)

Score Analysis

Nacional 54.08%

Danubio 18.97%

Draw 26.92%

Nacional	Draw	Danubio
1-0 @ 16.4% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 11.82% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.28% Total : 54.08%	1-1 @ 12% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 11.36% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.4% Total : 26.92%	0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 3.04% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.15% Total : 18.97%

Head to Head

Jun 25, 2022 7pm

Danubio

0-1

Nacional

Rea (24'), Vicente (90')

Luis Rodriguez (80')
Marichal (24'), Castro (57'), Laborda (73'), Carballo (90+4')

Jun 5, 2022 7pm

Danubio

2-1

Nacional

German Haller Piloni (6'), Rodriguez (72' pen.)
Fossati (13'), Rea (38'), Vicente (49'), Ferreira (76'), Rodriguez (84'), Navarro (90+3')
German Haller Piloni (12'), Rodriguez (84')

Fagundez (61')
Candido (51')

Mar 13, 2021 7.30pm

Danubio

2-1

Nacional

Siri (41'), Mendez (90+1')
Mendez (21'), Monzon (29'), Ichazo (90+7')

Vecino (23')
Vecino (37'), Corujo (44'), Orihuela (50')

Nov 21, 2020 10.30pm

Nacional

0-2

Danubio

Trasante (34'), Bergessio (63'), Martinez (90+5')
Laborda (62')