Two sides in contrasting forms in the Portuguese Primeira Liga go head to head on Sunday when Vitoria de Guimaraes play host to Famalicao at the Dom Afonso Henriques.
Os Vimaranenses head into the game seeking to snap a run of three consecutive defeats, while the visitors will be aiming to make it four wins from four for the first time this season.
Match preview
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Vitoria de Guimaraes were left empty-handed once again in the Primeira Liga as they fell to a humbling 3-0 defeat at the hands of Benfica last Sunday.
In a one-sided affair at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Goncalo Ramos broke the deadlock in the 23rd minute before Uruguayan forward Darwin Nunez struck twice to hand Nelson Verissimo's side all three points.
Vitoria de Guimaraes have now failed to pick up a point in their last three outings, losing out to Belenenses, Arouca and Benfica, while managing three points from their last 15 available.
This poor run has been owing to their poor performance at the defensive end of the pitch, where they have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 18 games across all competitions, conceding 28 goals in that time.
For all their recent struggles, Pepa's side currently sit seventh in the Primeira Liga standings with 30 points from 24 games, 12 points off Gil Vicente in the final Conference League qualification spot.
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Meanwhile, Famalicao maintained their fine string of performances last Saturday when they claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Tondela at the Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Off the back of a drab first half, the game sparked into life after the interval as Simon Banza and Joao Carlos Teixeira scored in a four-minute spell to put the Vila Nova two goals up before Daniel dos Anjos grabbed a 92nd-minute consolation.
Famalicao head into Sunday's game on an impressive three-game winning streak — their longest winning run since picking up three victories back in May 2021 — stretching back to a 2-0 defeat against Sporting Lisbon on February 6.
After hovering around the relegation places for most of the season, this upturn in form has seen Rui Silva's men rise to 11th place in the league standings with 26 points from 24 games, one point off Pacos de Ferreira in the top half of the table.
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Team News
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Following a short injury lay-off, Miguel Maga returned to action against Benfica last time, meaning Vitoria de Guimaraes now boast a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns, giving Pepa the luxury of a full-strength squad at his disposal.
However, after seeing his side fail to score in two of their last three games, the Portuguese manager could ring a few changes at the attacking end of the pitch this weekend.
Should that be the case, we could see veteran forward Ricardo Quaresma and Sporting Lisbon loanee Geny Catamo come into the mix and start on either flank of Oscar Estupinan in attack.
In stark contrast, Famalicao head into the game with several injury concerns down the spine of the team as the duo of defender Diogo Figueira and forward Heriberto Tavares continue their spells on the sidelines.
Spanish youngster Ivan Jamie is set to sit out his fifth consecutive game after the 21-year-old came off injured in January's game against Arouca.
Veteran defender Ruben Lima is also out of contention for the Vila Nova after sustaining an injury in the game against Belenenses on January 13.
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Maga, Fernandes, Mumin, Soares; Semedo, Lameiras, Silva; Quaresma, Estupinan, Catamo
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Junior; Nascimento, Penetra, Ricceli, Marin; Pepe, Assuncao, I Rodrigues; Teixeira, B Rodrigues; Banza
We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-2 Famalicao
After languishing in the relegation places for most of the first half of the season, Famalicao have turned a corner in recent weeks and could move into the top half of the Primeira Liga standings with all three points this weekend. The Vila Nova face a struggling Vitoria de Guimaraes side who have managed just three points from their last 15 available and we predict they will keep their fine run going and come away with all three points.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 51.24%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 24.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
