Willem II host Fortuna Sittard in a must-win last game of the Eredivisie season on Sunday as they aim to avoid finishing in the bottom three.
The home side are currently one point above Emmen in the relegation playoff position, while the away side have an extremely small chance of finishing in a playoff position for the UEFA Conference League.
Match preview
Willem II come into the final fixture of the season after a very important 4-1 win away to bottom-of-the-table ADO Den Haag, which relegated the home side while increasing the chances of survival for the Tricolores.
Forward Vangelis Pavlidis, who played left-wing on Thursday, scored a brace to make it 2-0 within the opening 25 minutes, before Kwasi Okyere Wriedt put Willem 3-0 up at half time.
Den Haag managed to get a goal back in the second half but Che Nunnely ended any concerns of a comeback with a fourth for Willem.
That victory means they come into the last game knowing it is in their hands to avoid relegation from the top flight for the first time since the 2012-13 season.
If Zeljko Petrovic's side fail to win the game, they will be relying on in-form Emmen not to win away to already-relegated VVV-Venlo.
Fortuna Sittard will be aiming to finish the season strongly with a win to secure their current position of 10th in the league, which will be their highest top-flight finish since the 1998-99 campaign.
However, they will be very disappointed after failing to win their last match against Vitesse on Thursday, which has more than likely ended their chances of finishing in the playoff positions.
The manner of the 3-3 draw will certainly hurt Sjors Ultee's side after conceding in the last minute of the match, particularly as midfielder Ben Rienstra opened the scoring in the first minute before Vitesse pulled two back.
Fortuna then took the lead again courtesy of a brace from their attacking midfielder Zian Flemming, yet a stoppage-time goal from Vitesse forward Lois Openda ended the thrilling tie 3-3.
This draw means that Fortuna would have to not only win their final match to finish eighth but also need playoff rivals Sparta Rotterdam and Heracles to lose their game, as well as turning around a seven-goal goal difference swing on the former.
However, they may struggle to even win their match as the home team are unbeaten against Fortuna in their last seven meetings at the Koning Willem II Stadion.
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Team News
Willem II will be without left-back Miquel Nelom due to a knee injury, as well as forward Elton Kabangu and defender Vincent Schippers who are ruled out through injury.
Arijanet Muric will remain in goal for the home side, covering for injured keeper Robbin Ruiter, and will aim to register his fourth clean sheet in 13 this season.
The away side will be without defenders Dario van den Buijs and Mickael Tirpan, who will sit this game out through injury.
Ultee is expected to make no changes to the side that drew 3-3 to Vitesse on Thursday.
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Muric; Owusu, Van Beek, Holmen, Kohn; Nunnely, Saddiki, Llonch, Ndayishimiye; Wriedt, Pavlidis
Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup:
Osch; Cox, Janssen, Angha, Rota; Rienstra, Tekie; Semedo, Seuntjens, Flemming; Polter
We say: Willem II 2-2 Fortuna Sittard
There is bound to be goals on Sunday with the fixture having over two goals scored in six of the last seven meetings between the sides, with the hosts scoring at least two goals in five of their last six matches against Fortuna Sittard.
Willem II will be desperate for a win to avoid the relegation playoff but their opponents will also want to finish the game strongly, shaping up for an entertaining affair.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-0 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
