Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Salvador win with a probability of 47.54%. A win for Antigua and Barbuda had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Salvador win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Antigua and Barbuda win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that El Salvador would win this match.