World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round
Nov 16, 2023 at 2.45pm UK
Basra Athletics Stadium
Iraq5 - 1Indonesia
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Iraq 2-2 Jordan (0-0 pen.)
Tuesday, October 17 at 3.30pm in International Friendlies
Tuesday, October 17 at 3.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Brunei 0-6 Indonesia
Tuesday, October 17 at 1.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Tuesday, October 17 at 1.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
We said: Iraq 2-0 Indonesia
Iraq have won just one of their last 11 World Cup qualifiers, but while that record may be underwhelming, we still think that they will have enough to beat a lowly-ranked Indonesian side. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indonesia win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indonesia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Iraq win was 1-0 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Iraq | Draw | Indonesia |
34.6% ( 0.01) | 26.84% ( 0) | 38.55% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.29% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.16% ( -0.01) | 53.83% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.7% ( -0.01) | 75.3% ( 0.01) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.44% ( -0) | 29.55% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.42% ( -0) | 65.57% ( -0) |
| Indonesia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.8% ( -0.01) | 27.19% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.39% ( -0.02) | 62.6% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
Iraq 34.6%
Indonesia 38.55%
Draw 26.84%
| Iraq | Draw | Indonesia |
| 1-0 @ 9.79% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.78% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.97% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.16% 3-0 @ 2.43% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.06% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.6% | 1-1 @ 12.75% 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.84% | 0-1 @ 10.46% 1-2 @ 8.31% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.81% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.61% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.96% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.17% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 38.55% |
How you voted: Iraq vs Indonesia
Iraq
50.0%Draw
15.4%Indonesia
34.6%26
