Even though they more than held their own in their last match versus the Americans, El Salvador are a different team away from home, while the United States have squeaked out several points in the Octagon because of their individual quality, which could win them this game as well.
Expect to see La Selecta play with a lot of physicality, while trying to throw the skilled Americans off their game with lots of fouls and hacks, but you have to think that the US should still have enough to collect three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 63.53%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for El Salvador had a probability of 14.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.21%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%), while for a El Salvador win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for USA in this match.
