Seeking to move clear of the relegation places, Arouca play host to Tondela in round 10 of the Primeira Liga at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca on Friday.
This will be the first top-flight meeting between the sides since Tondela secured a 2-1 win in May 2017 and both sides will be looking to get one over the other.
Match preview
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Arouca continue to struggle for form in the Portuguese top flight as they were held to an uneventful goalless draw by Pacos de Ferreira last Sunday.
In a game where Nuno Santos received his marching orders, the Arouquenses dominated proceedings but were constantly repelled by an inspired Andre Ferreira between the sticks, who made a plethora of saves to force a share of the spoils.
Prior to that, Arouca suffered an early exit from the Taca da Liga, where they lost on penalties against bottom-tier Leca at the Estadio do Leca two Sundays ago.
Armando Evangelista's men head into Friday's game without a win in any of their most recent seven outings across all competitions, losing four and picking up three draws since a 2-1 victory over Famalicao back in August.
This poor string of results has seen Arouca drop to 16th place in the standings, level on points with Famalicao and Santa Clara, and one point above rock-bottom Belenenses who are yet to taste victory this season.
This has been largely owing to their struggles away from home, where they have picked up just two points from 15 available and have conceded nine goals already.
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Tondela, on the other hand, saw their blistering run of results come to a halt last time out when they fell to a 3-1 defeat at the hands of title-chasing Porto at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
After falling behind to Neto Borges's fourth-minute strike, 29-year-old forward Mehdi Taremi put on a clinic as he netted a hat-trick to turn the game around and hand the Dragons their seventh win of the season.
Prior to that, Pako Ayestaran's side were on a three-game winning run across all competitions, brushing aside Famalicao and Belenenses in the league before seeing off Camacha in the third round of the Taca de Portugal on October 16.
Having picked up nine points from their opening nine games, Tondela currently find themselves languishing in the bottom half of the table and this has been down to their defensive frailties as they boast one of the division's worst records with 17 goals shipped to date.
While the CDT Auriverdes will be looking to immediately return to winning ways, next up is an opposing side who have won half of the last 10 meetings between the sides, picking up two draws and five wins in that time.
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Team News
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Evangelista will be unable to call upon the midfield duo of Moses Yaw and Antony Santos, who continue their spells on the sidelines after sustaining knee and groin injuries respectively.
Sema Velazquez will play no part in the game after the Venezuelan defender picked up an Achilles' tendon injury while on international duty against Argentina on September 3.
Tondela, meanwhile, will take to the pitch without the services of Portuguese youngster Jota Goncalves, who picked up a knee injury against Estoril Praia on September 13.
Iker Undabarrena is also out of contention for the CDT Auriverdes after the Spanish midfielder received his marching orders in the game against Porto last time out.
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Castro; Thales, Ba, Basso, Quaresma; Valderrama, Pite, Moreira; Bukia, Araujo, Silva
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Borges, Manu, Khacef, Almeida; Bebeto, Augusto, Pedro; Murillo, Agra, Dadasov
We say: Arouca 1-2 Tondela
Newly-promoted Arouca have struggled to get going in the top flight and face the risk of an immediate return to the Segunda Liga after a horrid start to the season. Despite their defeat last time out, Tondela head into the game in solid form and we predict they will claim all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.54%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
