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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 73.84%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 10.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 3-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.15%), while for an Augsburg win it was 1-2 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
73.84% ( -0.13) | 15.55% ( 0.09) | 10.61% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 54.18% ( -0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.18% ( -0.36) | 32.82% ( 0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.48% ( -0.42) | 54.52% ( 0.42) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.4% ( -0.11) | 7.59% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
72.82% ( -0.29) | 27.17% ( 0.29) |
Augsburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.64% ( -0.19) | 41.36% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.12% ( -0.16) | 77.87% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
2-0 @ 10.43% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.1% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.41% Total : 73.84% | 1-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 15.55% | 1-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 1.33% Total : 10.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 7 | 25 | 23 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
6 | Freiburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 16 |
7 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Stuttgart | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
11 | Augsburg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
12 | Heidenheim | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
14 | Wolfsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
15 | St Pauli | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 1 |
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