Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Burnley win was 0-1 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.