Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.63%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.