Heading into their final group fixture at the 2022 Copa Libertadores, Emelec need to beat Independiente Petrolero on Tuesday at Estadio George Capwell.
A victory combined with a Palmeiras triumph over Deportivo Tachira would be enough to send El Bombillo into the last 16, while their Bolivian opponents can only play the role of spoilers with just a single point after five games.
Match preview
It is now or never for the former 14-time Ecuadorian champions, who are looking to do something which they have yet to do in this competition to date, win on their home field.
The last time this team were in this competition, they found themselves in a similar situation going into their final game and came out on top 2-1 over Cruziero to advance to the next round before losing to the eventual champions Flamengo in the Round of 16.
You have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the club based in Guayaquil won a home game at this stage of the tournament when they defeated Peruvian side Melgar 3-0, finishing second in their group.
Coming into this encounter Ismael Rescalvo and his team are winless in four consecutive games in all competitions, sitting fifth in the Ecuadorian top flight, six points behind their arch-rivals Barcelona SC.
Their finishing has often let them down, without a goal in four straight matches in all competitions, managing just a single shot on target in a 1-0 defeat versus the defending champions Palmeiras on matchday five.
Emelec have conceded first in four of their five games played at this year's Libertadores, but when they do score first, they are a tough team to catch, without a defeat in that scenario since a 3-2 loss to Independiente del Valle in November 2021.
A 13-year wait to play in the biggest club competition in South America will end in disappointment for Los Refineros.
You do not have to look far to discover what has gone wrong for Marcelo Robledo's men, who have failed to keep the ball out of their goal, conceding 19 times in five fixtures.
Should they fail to earn a win or draw on Tuesday, they would end this round with the fewest points (one) of any side at the Copa Libertadores since 2020, when Tigre had just one point.
After edging Always Ready for their first league title in 2021, they have failed to remain consistent on their current campaign, as they are tied for fifth in their domestic group, without a goal in six straight matches in all competitions.
Their penalty area has turned into a shooting gallery, conceding double-digits in shots on target in three of their matches at this tournament, allowing multiple goals in four of their five games.
They were at their best on matchday one against Emelec in early April, generating plenty of pressure while only conceding two efforts on target, though they squandered two points when they allowed an equaliser in the 91st minute, playing to a 1-1 draw.
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Team News
Mauro Quiroga rescued a point for Emelec against Petrolero, notching the equaliser in injury-time, his only goal of the season, while Sebastian Rodriguez leads the way in that department after tallying a hat-trick in a 4-1 over Deportivo Tachira on matchday four.
Since March, Marlon Mejia has been out through injury, while Alexis Zapata leads them in assists with two so far after five encounters.
Rescalvo inserted a few new faces into the starting 11 over the weekend as Gustavo Canto, Jose Cevallos Enriquez, Jeison Chala and Dixon Vera replaced Eddie Guevera, Bryan Carabali, Edgar Lastre and Alejandro Cabeza, who all started in their defeat to Palestra.
Leonel Buter was the last player to score a goal for Independiente Petrolero, as he had the only tally in a 1-0 win over Club Universitario earlier this month as Hugo Ayala made three saves to collect the clean sheet.
Jonathan Cristaldo nearly won their opening match, scoring in the 88th minute as he was set up beautifully by Alejandro Medina Suarez.
Martin Chiatti has been their most dependable defender, starting every match played for them in 2022, while Juan Rioja made his first start on matchday five, as did Robin Ramirez, Victor Hugo Melgar and Buter.
Emelec possible starting lineup:
Ortiz; R. Caicedo, Quintero, Canto, J. Rodriguez; Enriquez, Arroyo, S. Rodriguez, Garces; Quiroga, Cabeza
Independiente Petrolero possible starting lineup:
Ayala; Chiatti, Reina, Velasquez, Rioja; Acuna, Aviles, Velasco; Campos; Correa, Buter
We say: Emelec 2-0 Independiente Petrolero
If there was a team that Emelec would have wanted to play in their final match of the group stage, the Bolivians would likely be their first choice.
We anticipate El Bombillo will be able to end their woes at home against a side with nothing to play for and a defence who have been far too easy to penetrate in this competition.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
