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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 80.6%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for FC Volendam had a probability of 6.41%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.67%) and 0-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.18%), while for a FC Volendam win it was 1-0 (2.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Volendam | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
6.41% ( 0.52) | 12.99% ( 0.73) | 80.6% ( -1.25) |
Both teams to score 43.7% ( 0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.32% ( -1.43) | 35.67% ( 1.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.26% ( -1.59) | 57.74% ( 1.59) |
FC Volendam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.92% ( 0.55) | 53.08% ( -0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.3% ( 0.34) | 86.7% ( -0.34) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.14% ( -0.55) | 6.86% ( 0.54) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.77% ( -1.48) | 25.23% ( 1.48) |
Score Analysis |
FC Volendam | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.15% Total : 6.41% | 1-1 @ 6.18% ( 0.35) 0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.55% Total : 12.99% | 0-2 @ 13.07% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 11.67% ( -0.22) 0-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( 0.23) 0-4 @ 7.82% ( -0.39) 1-3 @ 7.4% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 4.96% ( -0.17) 0-5 @ 4.19% ( -0.35) 1-5 @ 2.66% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.03) 0-6 @ 1.87% ( -0.22) 2-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 1-6 @ 1.19% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.83% Total : 80.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 65 | 20 | 45 | 49 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 41 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 23 |
14 | Groningen | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 21 |
15 | Heracles | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 20 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 11 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
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