Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.75%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.