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Championship header 2

League Two
Northampton Town
League Two | Gameweek 22
Dec 20, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Sixfields
Carlisle United

Northampton
2 - 1
Carlisle

Sherring (53'), Appere (56')
Fox (45'), Burge (83'), McGowan (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Armer (50')
Whelan (41'), Armer (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Northampton Town and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northampton Town

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Northampton 0-0 Tranmere
Saturday, December 3 at 3pm in League Two

Carlisle United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Carlisle 1-1 Sutton
Saturday, December 3 at 1pm in League Two

We said: Northampton Town 2-1 Carlisle United

 While both sides have proven difficult opponents to take points off in the league this season, Northampton Town's consistency of performance makes them one of the teams to beat in League Two. Carlisle have been strong performers away from home this season, however creation of meaningful opportunities has been a problem for Paul Simpson of late, and they may not have the attacking power to outscore their fellow promotion contenders. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Northampton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Northampton Town.

Result
Northampton TownDrawCarlisle United
47.29% (0.186 0.19) 24.81% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09) 27.9% (-0.099 -0.1)
Both teams to score 54.92% (0.212 0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.18% (0.314 0.31)47.82% (-0.316 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30% (0.289 0.29)70% (-0.291 -0.29)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.72% (0.20400000000001 0.2)20.27% (-0.206 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.37% (0.326 0.33)52.63% (-0.329 -0.33)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.89% (0.088999999999999 0.09)31.11% (-0.09 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.57% (0.105 0.11)67.43% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Northampton Town 47.28%
    Carlisle United 27.9%
    Draw 24.81%
Northampton TownDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 10.06% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-1 @ 9.38% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.03% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 4.99% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.27% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.91% (0.032 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.99% (0.029 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.7% (0.021 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 47.28%
1-1 @ 11.75% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.31% (-0.083 -0.08)
2-2 @ 5.48% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.13% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 24.81%
0-1 @ 7.36% (-0.078 -0.08)
1-2 @ 6.86% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.3% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.67% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 2.13% (0.015 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.67% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 27.9%

How you voted: Northampton vs Carlisle

Northampton Town
63.3%
Draw
30.0%
Carlisle United
6.7%
30
Head to Head
Mar 12, 2022 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Northampton
Sho-Silva (74'), Gibson (90+4' pen.)
Riley (80')
Lewis (79')
McWilliams (31'), Horsfall (56'), Pinnock (80')
Oct 30, 2021 2pm
Northampton
3-0
Carlisle
Lewis (41', 57', 67' pen.)

Armer (66'), Guy (82')
Mar 17, 2020 7.45pm
Northampton
P-P
Carlisle
Oct 22, 2019 7.45pm
Carlisle
0-2
Northampton
Pollock (51'), Hoskins (92')
Waters (58'), McWilliams (76')
Jan 12, 2019 3pm
Northampton
3-0
Carlisle
Bridge (48', 62'), Morias (72')
McWilliams (54')

Etuhu (32'), Hope (77')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale149322315830
2Walsall1382326141226
3Notts County1475222121026
4Doncaster RoversDoncaster148242016426
5Crewe AlexandraCrewe137331612424
6Chesterfield1457228151322
7Bradford CityBradford146442015522
8MK Dons146352116521
9BarrowBarrow146351511421
10Grimsby Town147071825-721
11Gillingham146261512320
12Salford City145541416-220
13AFC Wimbledon11614189919
14Newport CountyNewport146171824-619
15Fleetwood TownFleetwood134631915418
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham145271821-317
17Harrogate TownHarrogate144371119-815
18Bromley133551517-214
19Tranmere RoversTranmere13355816-814
20Accrington StanleyAccrington133461522-713
21Colchester UnitedColchester132651620-412
22Swindon TownSwindon142661520-512
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1422101228-168
24Morecambe141491225-137
> League Two Full Table


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