Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.