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FA Cup | First Round
Nov 4, 2024 at 7.15pm UK
The Meadow
Lincoln City

Chesham
0 - 4
Lincoln

FT(HT: 0-1)
Moylan (44'), Makama (49'), McGrandles (65'), Adebiyi (87' og.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's FA Cup clash between Chesham United and Lincoln City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Enfield Town 2-3 Chesham
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Lincoln 2-1 Northampton
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Chesham United 1-2 Lincoln City

Lincoln will be the favourites to progress from this first-round time, and while we think that they may be in for a tricky evening, we believe that their EFL quality will help them claim a narrow win to seal a place in the second round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 57.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Chesham United had a probability of 18.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.87%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Chesham United win it was 1-0 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.

Result
Chesham UnitedDrawLincoln City
18.84% (0.221 0.22) 23.23% (0.245 0.25) 57.93% (-0.468 -0.47)
Both teams to score 49.1% (-0.369 -0.37)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.689 -0.69)50.25% (0.687 0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (-0.614 -0.61)72.2% (0.613 0.61)
Chesham United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.21% (-0.153 -0.15)40.79% (0.153 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.63% (-0.136 -0.14)77.37% (0.13500000000001 0.14)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.92% (-0.40900000000001 -0.41)17.08% (0.408 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.73% (-0.727 -0.73)47.27% (0.72600000000001 0.73)
Score Analysis
    Chesham United 18.84%
    Lincoln City 57.92%
    Draw 23.23%
Chesham UnitedDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 6.25% (0.147 0.15)
2-1 @ 4.95% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 2.8% (0.054 0.05)
3-1 @ 1.48% (0.0029999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 1.31% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 18.84%
1-1 @ 11.04% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.192 0.19)
2-2 @ 4.38% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 23.23%
0-1 @ 12.31% (0.18 0.18)
0-2 @ 10.87%
1-2 @ 9.76% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
0-3 @ 6.41% (-0.082 -0.08)
1-3 @ 5.75% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-4 @ 2.83% (-0.076 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.58% (-0.055 -0.06)
1-4 @ 2.54% (-0.079 -0.08)
2-4 @ 1.14% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-5 @ 1% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 57.92%

How you voted: Chesham vs Lincoln

Chesham United
22.1%
Draw
10.4%
Lincoln City
67.5%
77
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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31-34
Lions
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1Liverpool14112129111835
2Chelsea1484231151628
3Arsenal1484228141428
4Manchester CityMan City148242519626
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton146532320323
6Fulham146442119222
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest146441616022
8Aston Villa146442223-122
9Bournemouth146352119221
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1462628151320
11Brentford146262726120
12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle145541717020
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd145451715219
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham144371827-915
15Everton143561421-714
16Leicester CityLeicester143471928-913
17Crystal Palace142661218-612
18Ipswich TownIpswich141671325-129
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves142392236-149
20Southampton1412111130-195


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